Donald Trump’s return to the White House entails a significant shift in America’s foreign policy, setting a new course in the dynamics of U.S.-Africa relations. His “America First” agenda, animated by a renewed focus on driving strategic competition with China and Russia, presents opportunities and challenges for the continent, reshaping the ties between Ethiopia and the U.S.

Once again, the Horn of Africa is emerging as a stage for longstanding geopolitical disputes. On the one hand, Addis Ababa is strengthening its economic and security capabilities by leveraging its natural resources and striving for maritime access, which it considers an existential necessity. Cairo and Mogadishu, on the other hand, are escalating a military buildup in Somalia to counter Ethiopia's increasingly assertive initiatives, seen as threats to their respective national interests. In response to concerns over Somalia's militarization, deemed provocative and a potential threat to national and regional security, Addis Ababa is implementing preventive measures, including putting its national defence forces on heightened alert. Meanwhile, preparations are underway to replace the AU Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) with the AU Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). However, the planning process has encountered difficult decisions, as it has become a central issue in the brewing regional tensions. If not managed cautiously, AU’s next mission in Somalia might cultivate conditions conducive to a catastrophic proxy conflict in the region, which it aims to help stabilize. While preventing an imminent confrontation should be a top priority, understanding that these tensions are only the most recent episode in protracted geopolitical contests for resources, territory, and influence is equally crucial for effectively addressing the underlying factors.